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The Prospect of Rosy Investment Forecasts


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  • Product Description

There is substantial evidence that forecasts made by professionals in a variety of fields display a bias that suggests overconfidence or optimism. This paper investigates EU survey data on investment growth forecasts. A review of the existing literature finds a plethora of behavioral reasons for the biases. Consequently, this paper decides to use the Prospect Theory as an explanatory framework. A hypothesis is developed that links the forecasting bias to asymmetric behavior between potential gains and losses as well as risk-seeking and risk-averse behavior among forecasters. It is due to this behavior that actual investments do not equal planned investments, resulting in a positive bias.

Product Specifications
SKU :COC69409
AuthorMichael Heyer
Number of Pages68
Publishing Year2011-01-19T00:00:00.000
Edition1 st
Book TypeEconomics
Country of ManufactureIndia
Product BrandLAP LAMBERT Academic Publishing
Product Packaging InfoBox
In The Box1 Piece
Product First Available On ClickOnCare.com2015-07-08 00:00:00